Global arable market report (09 September 2024)

Published 2024년 9월 9일

Tridge summary

The global grain and oilseed markets are experiencing support from a improved outlook for US wheat exports, smaller EU crop, and dryness in the US Midwest, but the competitiveness of Black Sea grain is keeping prices in check. Dryness in the US Midwest has impacted crop conditions, with 13% of US maize experiencing drought. Despite this, the USDA reported that 65% of the US soybean crop is in good to excellent condition. Ukraine has capped wheat and meslin exports for the 2024/25 marketing year at 16.2 Mt, and the EU has reduced its 2024/25 rapeseed harvest forecast to 16.9 Mt, more than 15% below last year's level. Canada's canola harvest is 16% complete, and China may initiate an anti-dumping investigation into imported Canadian canola, which could impact global oilseed markets.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

An improved outlook for US wheat exports offers support in addition to the smaller EU crop. However, the competitiveness of Black Sea grain will continue to keep a lid on prices. Dryness in the US Midwest has provided support to the market. However, uncertainty regarding the degree of impact this has had on the crop caps gains given the record crop forecast. Barley continues to track the wider cereals market for now. Poorer results in Europe and disappointing reports so far from Canada contrast with good prospects in the Southern Hemisphere. Global wheat markets were supported last week, as the benchmark contracts (Nov/Dec ‘24) for Chicago, Paris and UK wheat futures all rose on the week (Friday – Friday). Chicago and Paris maize futures (Dec-24 and Nov-24 respectively) also gained. Despite strong Black Sea exports, support in the grains market came from persistent dryness in the US Midwest, some price stability for Black Sea wheat and an improved US wheat exports outlook. Dryness ...

Source: Ahdb