Chuck Penner said the "ultimate question" for the Canadian dry bean price outlook is what will the carryout be from the 2020-21 crop? Statistics Canada believes it will be slightly more than 100,000 tonnes, which would result in ample supplies for the current crop year. Production is way down this year but that level of carryout would create a total supply of 489,000 tonnes of beans, which would be well above the typical crop of around 400,000 tonnes.
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"I'm not entirely convinced about these supply numbers, largely because of price behaviour in the last little while," Penner told delegates attending the 2021 virtual Pulse and Special Crops Convention. Posted bids for navy and pinto beans in Canada were around 49 cents per pound when Penner delivered his presentation on Sept. 8 and they appeared to be climbing higher. Actual bids were likely a lot more than that. In the United States, where there is much better pricing information, bids were around US45 cents per lb. for pinto and black beans and 40 cents for navies. All three types appeared to be heading towards the 2011 highs of about $50 cents. Keven Sawchuk, senior pulses merchandizer with Viterra, agreed with Penner's assessment of the market. "Maybe (supplies) aren't as plentiful as some of the statistics might suggest," he said. Statistics Canada is forecasting 325,000 tonnes of Canadian production in 2021, down 33 percent from the record set last year. In the U.S., black ...
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