Beyond the floods: Commodity markets in New Zealand

Updated Mar 15, 2023
Since peaking in Q2 2022, commodity prices have been losing momentum. Average commodity prices have fallen between 20% to 30% from their mid 2022 peaks, depending on the product. The weaker fundamentals are expected to keep a lid on any major price recovery in the near term, with Chinese imports remaining cautious alongside broader demand rationing in other markets. RaboResearch has also lowered its forecast to NZ$ 8.50/kgMS for the full 2022/23 season. However, we think upside price potential remains possible, with China anticipated to show more buying interest from Q2 2023. Beef RaboResearch anticipates that the beef schedule will hold around current pricing levels in March, but there is potential upside. The North Island bull price held at NZ$ 6.65/kg cwt through January and February, which is NZc 52 above the five year average price. The suspension of Brazilian beef exports may provide some pricing support for New Zealand beef exports, but it depends on two things: how long ...
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