Brazil: Despite losses, the scenario in the Midwest and Northeast favors a big soybean crop in 2025

Published 2025년 2월 13일

Tridge summary

The article reports a positive revision in the production of the Brazilian soybean crop, with an estimated potential of 174.875 million tons, due to high yields in the Midwest and Northeast states, despite significant losses in Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul because of adverse weather conditions. Mato Grosso, the main soybean-growing state, showed positive surprises with high yields, leading to a production estimate of 50.8 million tons. Other Midwest states and states in the Northeast also showed excellent results, contributing to a record production. The supply and demand scenario remains unchanged, with expected crushing and export levels.

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Original content

The new production scenario for the Brazilian soybean crop presents a positive revision, with an estimated potential of 174.875 mln tons, accounting for an increase over the previous figure. The scenario reflects a balance between the significant losses in the South (especially in Rio Grande do Sul) and in parts of the Midwest (Mato Grosso do Sul) and the high yield observed in practically all states in the Midwest and Northeast, which have offset adverse weather conditions. In the case of Rio Grande do Sul, a crop of around 23.738 mln tons was initially projected. However, high temperatures and prolonged drought, with scattered rain in January, resulted in a revision to 19.8 mln tons, down 15.2%. Losses were concentrated mainly in the west of the state. In Mato Grosso do Sul, there was a negative adjustment of around 11%. The initial estimate of 15.5 mln tons was revised to 13.8 mln, reflecting the impacts of adverse weather conditions in the south of the state. However, areas ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult