Brazil gains advantage with Chinese cut in the US

China's decision to suspend purchases of soybeans from the United States at the beginning of the new crop season is reshaping global grain flows. The move temporarily enhances Brazil's advantage but places pressure on domestic stockpiles, prices, and margins of the local industry, which already operates on tight margins. The accelerated increase in exports reduces the availability of soybeans for domestic processing, essential for the production of meal and oil for the internal market. Brazil exported 91.2 million tons of soybeans by September, just 15 million below the Conab target for 2024/25. The accelerated pace anticipates risks for processing, as the scarcity of grains in the internal market keeps meal prices elevated, even with a drop in international prices, and causes distortions in the basis. "The trade shock enhances Brazil's advantage in the short term, but also demands close attention. We have already recorded exports above the average of the last five years, but this ...