Brazilian soy may break a record, but weather remains a key factor

The soybean market presented positive movement in November on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with an 8.4% increase over October, reaching US$ 11.21/bushel. According to data released by Itaú BBA, this advance was mainly driven by Chinese purchases, which resumed acquisitions of American soybeans. In the domestic market, the price had a distinct behavior. In Sorriso (MT), there was a 1.2% drop in November, with the sack quoted at R$ 118.50. In the first days of December, the value fell to R$ 117.00. The planting, in the final phase, has been marked by irregular rains, with the highlight being the peak of La Niña this month, which should favor the North-Central region and harm the South. Despite the climatic challenges, the expectation is that the Brazilian soybean crop of 2025/26 will reach a record of 178 million tons, sustained by growing domestic and external demand. The projections point to domestic consumption of 64.2 million tons and export of 112 million tons. Even with ...