Corn: market foresees climate risk for the second crop

According to the analysis by the Grão Direto specialist, released this Monday (24), "the 2026 second corn crop is already a concern." The report points out that the delay in soybean planting in the Cerrado and Matopiba regions is pushing the corn sowing outside the ideal window. According to the document, this increases the climatic risk of the second crop, as part of the areas will be planted "when the rains start to become scarcer." The specialist states that the futures market is already anticipating this mismatch, with risk premiums incorporated into the contracts for the second half of 2026. The analysis also highlights that there is "domestic competition for supply," driven by heated demand. According to the report, two factors sustain this movement: the expansion of corn-based ethanol plants and the strong pace of animal protein industries. The specialist asserts that this direct competition pressures the availability of the grain and tends to intensify in the coming ...