Global crop yields may see effect of climate change by 2030

Corn crop yields are projected to decline by 24%, while wheat could potentially see growth of about 17%. Using advanced climate and agricultural models, scientists found that the change in yields is due to projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns, and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. These changes would make it more difficult to grow corn in the tropics but could expand wheat’s growing range. “We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,” said lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and The Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York City. The projected corn response was surprisingly large and negative, he said. “A 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide.” ...