EFSA analyses the impact of wild boar density on the spread of African swine fever in wild boar populations in 2022-2023

(1) Wild boar density is thought to play a role in shaping African swine fever (ASF) transmission patterns. To quantitatively estimate the impact of wild boar density on ASF transmission, EFSA developed a spatially explicit detection delay (SIR) mechanistic model for the spread of ASF between wild boar habitats with defined densities and parameterized the model based on epidemiological data observed in northern Italy from January 2022 to September 2023. Wild boar density estimates were generated by the ENETWILD consortium. The infectious period, local prevalence at first detection, detection rate and seasonal recovery rate were estimated directly from surveillance data. Eight models were constructed using static and seasonal transmission rates and a linear relationship between habitat susceptibility/infectivity and wild boar density. Transmission rate, relative susceptibility and relative infectivity were calculated using a sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The approximate ...