EFSA analyses the impact of wild boar density on the spread of African swine fever in wild boar populations in 2022-2023

Published 2024년 11월 22일

Tridge summary

Researchers from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) have utilized data from northern Italy to model the impact of wild boar density on the spread of African swine fever (ASF) using a spatially explicit detection delay (SIR) model. The study, which incorporates epidemiological data and wild boar density estimates, suggests that during the second wave of the outbreak in Italy, wild boar density may have contributed to ASF transmission. The model, with adjustable transmission rates and habitat susceptibility/infectivity, could be applied to other epidemic situations to further understand the role of wild boar density in disease spread.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

(1) Wild boar density is thought to play a role in shaping African swine fever (ASF) transmission patterns. To quantitatively estimate the impact of wild boar density on ASF transmission, EFSA developed a spatially explicit detection delay (SIR) mechanistic model for the spread of ASF between wild boar habitats with defined densities and parameterized the model based on epidemiological data observed in northern Italy from January 2022 to September 2023. Wild boar density estimates were generated by the ENETWILD consortium. The infectious period, local prevalence at first detection, detection rate and seasonal recovery rate were estimated directly from surveillance data. Eight models were constructed using static and seasonal transmission rates and a linear relationship between habitat susceptibility/infectivity and wild boar density. Transmission rate, relative susceptibility and relative infectivity were calculated using a sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The approximate ...
Source: Foodmate

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