EU pork production to continue its decline, with smaller herd

Published 2023년 1월 6일

Tridge summary

In 2022, the sow herd in the EU27's major producing countries experienced a contraction due to negative producer margins, caused by high feed costs and low piglet prices in an oversupplied market. The most significant declines were seen in Poland, Germany, and Denmark, with England experiencing a 17% reduction in its sow herd, leading to a projected 10% decrease in UK pork production in 2023. The decline in replenishment of Europe's pig herd in the second half of 2022 is attributed to ongoing cost pressures, low export demand, and pressure on domestic consumption. High inflation in 2023 is expected to continue squeezing consumer budgets, pressuring pork demand. However, pork demand might benefit from relatively high chicken prices due to expected supply restrictions from avian influenza. The EU27's pork exports are predicted to continue their decline, albeit at a slowing rate, with a potential lift in exports to China in the first half of 2023 due to anticipated tight pork supply in China. In Germany, additional animal welfare regulations and export restrictions from African Swine Fever, along with low returns, will result in further herd contraction.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Negative producer margins led the sow herd to contract during 2022, given high feed costs and low piglet prices in an oversupplied market. In June 2022, the sow herd was 5% smaller year-on-year (YOY) in the eight major producing countries of the EU27, with the sharpest declines in Poland (-17%), Germany (-9%), and Denmark (-7%), noted a Rabobank publication in December. England recorded a 17% reduction in its sow herd in the same period, which will lead to a 10% decline in UK pork production in 2023, reported the analysts. Replenishment of Europe’s pig herd is not likely in 2H 2022 due to ongoing cost pressures, high feed, and energy costs in particular, along with continued low export demand, and pressure on domestic consumption, they stressed. Ongoing high inflation will continue squeezing consumer budgets in 2023, pressuring pork demand. Pork may benefit from relatively high chicken prices, though, as chicken supply is expected to remain restricted due to avian influenza, ...

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