U.S. soybean production has unexpectedly decreased, causing a drop in stockpiles and leading to a surge in prices. This, coupled with ongoing dry weather in Argentina, is balancing against the anticipation of a large crop in Brazil. Soybean oil futures have seen an especially significant increase, driven in part by upcoming clean fuel tax credit recommendations. Despite a slight loss, money managers have reduced their net short positions in soybean meal. Meanwhile, U.S. corn crop estimates have been reduced by the USDA, resulting in a rise in corn prices. Speculators are bullish about the future of corn prices under various scenarios, including weather challenges in South America and the U.S.
Additionally, the article discusses the potential for thinner U.S. corn stock-to-use numbers in 2025-26, noting that this would require a series of adverse weather events. It also mentions a historical period of speculator bull run in corn prices when China was actively purchasing U.S. corn, though this activity has ceased for nearly two years. Reuters market analyst, Karen Brown, provides her insights into the current market trends and the factors influencing them.