Global catch limits drive up cod prices, potentially maintaining high levels until 2026

Global catch limits, comprehensive supply contraction

According to reports, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recommended that the 2026 catch of Northeast Arctic cod (Northeast Arctic cod) should not exceed 269,440 tons, a 14% decrease from the 2025 recommendation and a 21% reduction from the 2025 actual quota. Iceland's cod quota also fell by 4%, marking the lowest level since 2013.

Finn-Arne Egeness, chief analyst of marine products at Norway's Nordea Bank, pointed out that the simultaneous tightening of quotas in the three major cod fishing countries, Norway, Russia, and Iceland, has made cod a "highly scarce luxury product."

Cod prices continue to soar

The reduction in quotas has directly pushed up the purchase price for fishermen. Data from the Norwegian Fishermen's Sales Organization (Norges Rafisklag) showed that the average price of frozen cod in early October 2025 reached 92.10 Norwegian kroner per kilogram (approximately $9.2), a 27% increase year-on-year; the price of fresh cod was 65.63 Norwegian kroner per kilogram (approximately $6.6), with a year-on-year increase of 32%.

Analysts said, "High-priced cod is bringing record profits to fishing boats, but onshore processing plants are facing difficulties due to raw material shortages."

Changes in processing and trade structure

Due to high prices, the export flow of cod is also changing.

Exports of Norwegian fresh cod fillets decreased by 50% year-on-year, while frozen cod fillets decreased by 25%. However, the export performance of dried and salted cod (Clipfish) stood out, despite a 25% drop in quota, the export value only decreased by 12%.

Data showed that imports of dried and salted cod in the Portuguese market in September 2025 only decreased by 3%, but Brazil saw a sharp drop of 45%, showing that "high-priced cod" is changing the global consumption pattern.

High prices are expected to continue until the end of 2026

Egeness predicted that cod prices will remain at historic highs until the quota recovers in 2027-2028. Some consumers will turn to other white fish products due to the price.

The trend in the UK retail market also confirms this: in the 12 weeks up to August 9, cod retail sales decreased by 6.5%, but the average price increased by 7.7% to 11.20 British pounds per kilogram.

"Cod is no longer an affordable ingredient; it is becoming a symbol on the tables of the wealthy," Egeness concluded.