Global grain price rally takes a breather

Published 2024년 6월 4일

Tridge summary

Improved Russian weather has led to a stall in the recent rally in global grain markets, with nearby Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures touching new highs before ending the week 2.7% lower. Despite the weather, Russian wheat crop estimates remain unchanged, with the US Department of Agriculture estimating production at 91.5 million tonnes. This could lead to a revision down in USDA Russian production projections, further tightening available wheat. Demand rationing is happening with Egypt raising prices of baladi bread and rising interest rates increasing the cost of capital. Australian wheat offers into Asia are holding at recent price highs, and India could be an X-factor with predicted imports of 3-5 million tonnes due to poor crop conditions.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Russian weather continued to be a driver of global grain markets last week, with improved conditions seeing the recent rally in global markets stall. Nearby Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures touched new highs of 720 US cents per bushel (USc/bu) at the beginning of last week before ending the week down 19 USc/bu or 2.7 per cent. Despite the correction in CBoT wheat futures, the reportedly improved Russian weather doesn't appear to have resulted in any major changes to estimates of the Russian wheat crop. A Russian railway operator provided a new private production estimate at just 77.4 million tonnes last week, which is below the recent consensus of private estimates closer to 80mt. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated Russian wheat production at 91.5mt in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Hence there is room for some revision down in the USDA Russian production projections which will further tighten available wheat in the ...

Source: Farmweekly