Global Markets: Rice – Trade Contracts on Low Exportable Supplies

Published Aug 14, 2020

Tridge summary

Global rice trade is forecast down in 2020 during a chaotic trading year impacted by export restrictions at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and by reduced supplies in Thailand. Limited exportable supplies and relatively high prices are some key drivers of the global contraction of trade. The exporter with the sharpest decline is Thailand. Exportable supplies have been limited by a poor Thai crop which was affected by drought.

Original content

Thai prices have been consistently higher than its regional competitors. However, Thai exports did have a brief window of opportunity when Vietnam, Cambodia, and Burma instituted export bans and quotas in the spring. With these restrictions having lasted only a couple of months, Thai exports have since faltered following these competitors’ re-entry into the market. Thailand is forecast to export only 6.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020, its lowest since 1998. Vietnam is now projected as the second-largest global exporter, despite its ban earlier in the year. A strong past few month of exports from Brazil has partially offset declines in Southeast Asian exports. Brazil’s year-to-date exports are two-thirds higher than what they were at this point last year. Brazil has exported to a diverse group of markets, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, as the other major supplier, the United States, has tight supplies and high prices. India, with robust exportable supplies, is expected ...

Source: Agfax