Global sugar balance and trade flow

According to Lívea Coda, Sugar and Ethanol Analyst at Hedgepoint, “We are at a crucial point where the market appears to have bottomed out. In previous reports, we have highlighted 17.5 c/lb as a significant support level, below Indian export parity and with Chinese arbitrage starting to open up in producing states. As a result, we expect prices to recover in the coming weeks and stabilize, depending on the pace of the harvest in the Center-South of Brazil.” The analyst highlights that, although much has been said about a possible sudden death of the Brazilian crop, it is important to note that the region’s TCH remains robust. “However, when we compare with previous seasons, we understand that we can expect a sharper correction in productivity between August and September. Depending on the extent of this reduction, we may need to revise our sugarcane estimates of 620 Mt downwards. For now, we have chosen to keep our numbers unchanged until further confirmation. That said, even if ...