US: Heifers continue to buoy feedlot inventory

Published 2024년 12월 18일

Tridge summary

The October Cattle on Feed report shows nearly flat inventory levels from the previous year, despite expectations of a year-over-year decrease due to smaller inventory levels at the beginning of the year. The report also indicates a surge in calf prices, leading to the retention of heifers and a decrease in their numbers in feedlots. Import data from Mexico reveals a significant increase in heifer imports, supporting the stable number of heifers on feed. The USDA has adjusted the beef production forecast for 2024 and 2025 upwards, attributing the increase to higher placements, strong feeder cattle imports, and heavier expected carcass weights. Cattle prices have seen a rebound, remaining historically high and expected to stay elevated through 2025. Beef exports have been stronger than anticipated in 2024, despite high prices and competition from other suppliers like Australia and Brazil. Finally, beef imports have reached record levels, with a notable increase from Australia and other countries, and are projected to rise further in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Earlier this year, it was expected that the number of cattle on feed would shrink year over year in the second half of 2024, based on smaller inventory levels at the beginning of the year, and that year-over-year higher calf prices would result in retention of heifers, limiting numbers in the feedlot. However, the October Cattle on Feed report, published by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimated the Oct. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.6 million head, nearly flat from 11.604 million head for the same month last year. Feedlot net placements in September were 2% lower year over year at 2.1 million head. Placements more than offset marketings in September, which registered 1.7 million head, up 2% year over year. As a result, the number of cattle on feed on Oct.1 has been relatively flat since 2021 despite declining cattle inventories since 2019. Despite the relatively high price of feeder calves, Figure 1 shows that the number of net placements to marketings ...

Source: Progressivecattle