High stocks and lower production shape the cotton scenario in MT

The total supply of cotton is estimated at 3.52 million tons, which represents a 2.56% drop compared to the previous crop (2024/25). According to an Imea bulletin, the decline is driven by the lower production forecast, reflecting adjustments in the planted area and cotton productivity. Conversely, carryover stocks are the highest in the historical series recorded by Imea, which guarantees a relatively robust supply, even in the face of the drop in harvest. On the demand side, the projection is 2.71 million tons, a slight decline of 0.33% from the previous season. The contraction is concentrated in exports and sales to other states, which fell by 0.12% and 1.80%, respectively. Domestic consumption in Mato Grosso was the only segment that showed growth, driven by the expansion of a ginning industry in the state, according to the Imea bulletin. Shipments abroad remain the main destination for Mato Grosso cotton, with an estimated 2.05 million tons in the 25/26 crop. The volume ...