How does 2024 end and what are the predictions for 2025 for the American dairy sector?

The October forecast for 2024 US milk production has been reduced due to a decrease in milk production per cow, caused by an aging herd and a limited supply of replacement heifers. As a result, the total milk production is now projected to be 45.4 million kg (0.1 billion lb) less than the previous forecast and 254 million kg (0.56 billion lb) less than the 2023 production level. However, margins are expected to improve for dairy producers. The dairy herd is predicted to remain below 2023 levels due to limited replacement herd capacity. The forecast for U.S. dairy imports in 2024 has been increased, while the export forecast remains unchanged. Domestic dairy use in 2024 is expected to decline from 2023 levels, primarily due to reduced milk production and high prices for key dairy products. The forecast for U.S. milk production in 2025 has also been reduced, along with the projected productivity per cow. Imports and exports in 2025 are also forecasted to change, with increases in cheese, butter, casein, and milk protein concentrate imports, and decreases in exports of skim milk products, cheese, whey powder and lactose due to reduced price competitiveness in international markets.