How EU’s butterfat shortage is influencing global dairy markets

게시됨 2024년 10월 7일

Tridge 요약

Maxum Foods believes the dairy market will not decline before December, despite potential increases in milk supply, a decrease in demand for cream, and the effect of New Zealand butterfat imports. The company forecasts a decline in EU butter production of over 1% in 2024 due to limited milk supply and demand for cheese. However, milk output is expected to rise in other regions, including New Zealand. In China, raw milk production is estimated to increase in 2024, leading to a decrease in imports of fluid milk, WMP, and SMP. In the US, improved farm margins are expected to lead to increased milk solids output, with cheese prices easing as cheddar supply improves and butter prices staying under pressure as cream production improves. Maxum Foods also anticipates that cheese exports will be crucial for the US cheese balance sheet in the first half of 2025.

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원본 콘텐츠

According to dairy ingredient supplier Maxum Foods, there’s ‘little belief’ that the market would go down prior to December – based on futures and actual trades - even if milk supply increases, demand for cream cools and the impact of lower-cost New Zealand butterfat imports is felt. According to the latest USDA Dairy World Markets and Trade report, butter production in the EU is forecast to decline by more than 1% in 2024, driven by limited milk supply and demand for cheese rather than cream and non-fat dry milk. In other regions, milk output is rising, with a potentially stronger peak season in New Zealand keeping SMP prices in check despite tight EU and US supplies, the company said. In China, the USDA estimates raw milk production to increase in 2024 due to a larger dairy cow inventory, with imports of fluid milk, WMP and SMP likely to decline due to higher domestic milk consumption. In the US, increased farm margins would support improved milk solids output; cheese prices ...

출처: Dairyreporter