Livestock cycle adjusts and 2026 may mark resumption

Brazilian beef cattle farming is expected to end 2025 by setting new records for slaughter and exports. The projections were released by Itaú BBA, which highlights that the sector maintained a strong pace even after the turnaround in calf prices and the compression of breeding margins since last year. The expectation for 2026 is a slight reduction in the volume of finished cattle and a lower participation of females in the slaughter. The bank points out that technological evolution has prolonged the phase of higher supply of females, originally expected to lose strength this year. The relatively low cost of feed compared to finished cattle and the good profitability of feedlots have encouraged the producer to finish females instead of retaining them. The export absorbed this surplus and helped to sustain prices, avoiding more significant drops in the domestic market. Nevertheless, finished cattle remained undervalued compared to calves in 2025, deteriorating the exchange ratio for ...