Lower pork prices in China will soon increase pressure on soybean meal prices

게시됨 2023년 2월 6일

Tridge 요약

The global market for soybeans and soybean meal is heavily influenced by China's demand, which is linked to its pork production. Recent falls in China's domestic hog prices, by 17.5% for the month and 43% for the last quarter, have led to a decrease in soybean meal prices and margins approaching zero. Despite speculative demand on the Chicago Stock Exchange due to potential cuts in Argentine soybean harvest and supply, high pork stocks and lower demand from China could further drive down meal prices. China's soybean processing margins, which have been positive since mid-January, could shift back to negative if meal prices continue to decline.

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원본 콘텐츠

The world market of soybeans and soybean meal reacts sensitively to changes in demand from China, the main importer of these products. Therefore, the dynamics of pork production and prices are an important indicator of feed and soybean prices. Domestic hog prices in China fell 17.5% for the month and 43% for the last quarter, soybean meal fell 15% for the quarter, and soybean processing margins approached zero. On the Chicago Stock Exchange, soybean meal last week hit an 8-year high of $546/t amid speculative demand over a possible cut in the soybean harvest and meal supply in Argentina. However, a record soybean harvest in Brazil and a drop in demand from China could lower meal prices. China's hog prices fell for an 11th straight week amid over-slaughter and a rise in pork stocks due to lower-than-expected demand during the New Year holiday, dampening demand for soybean meal. The pig population, which began to decline in October 2021, recovered to the break-even level last May. ...

출처: Graintrade