Moody's Analytics: eventual U.S.-Brazil agreement would not significantly change the macro scenario

By Caroline Aragaki São Paulo, 10/22/2025 - A potential trade agreement between the United States and Brazil would not significantly change the macroeconomic scenario for either country, but it could strengthen President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the October 2026 elections, according to Moody's Analytics in a report. According to Moody's, economic damages from tariffs have opened a margin for dialogue, with prices of coffee and beef soaring, as Brazil is the largest and third-largest supplier to the U.S. of these products, respectively. For Brazil, tariffs have not changed the macroeconomic scenario, considering that increased exports to China have compensated for the gap with the U.S., as seen in the soaring exports of soybeans and corn in 2025. Moody's baseline scenario is that a broader agreement between Lula and President Donald Trump is unlikely, but the institution considers it possible to imagine the contours of a potential trade agreement. The U.S. would possibly ...