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India: Normal monsoon to support economic recovery, will agri commodity price rally continue in coming days?

Updated Jun 19, 2021
By NS Ramaswamy again this year. The South West monsoon is crucial for India. It delivers 70% of India’s rainfall and most Agricultural activities depend upon it. Further, the Agriculture sector accounts for about 18% of India’s GDP and employs more than half of the country’s 1.39 billion population.Last year, Agriculture was the only sector that supported the Indian economy while it recorded a slump in manufacturing and other sectors, which were badly hit, mainly due to a nationwide lockdown. Similarly, we expect that this year, normal rains will help support an economic recovery, which is facing new risks from resurgence in Covid cases, during the second wave of the pandemic.Source: IMD, Skymet, Ventura Securities LtdAgricultural commodity prices recovered and outperformed in FY 2020-2021 supported by factors:– Global stimulus packages, weaker dollar and adverse weather patterns– Lower interest rates by global central banksSource: Ticker plant, Ventura Securities LtdThe table ...
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