Outlook for the world cattle and poultry meat market

Updated Feb 15, 2023
The upward revision of China's red meat import forecast was partly driven by higher estimates for 2022 due to stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter shipments. For 2023, the expected economic recovery as well as the anticipated recovery of the hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) industry will support the expansion of red meat consumption and imports. Despite the upward adjustment of China's pork production in 2023 compared to the forecast in October 2022, the domestic supply is almost unchanged compared to the same period in 2022 and is difficult to fully meet the demand. recovery demand.
In 2023, beef imports are expected to increase, but shipping rates will slow as importers with refrigerated products need to enter the market before they invest in additional purchases. China's chicken imports are revised below pre-pandemic levels. Lower pork prices are expected to reduce consumer demand for chicken. However, imported chicken only accounts for about 4% of consumption. Beef • Global beef production in 2023 was virtually unchanged from the October forecast of 59.2 million tons. Global ham prices fell in 2023 — excluding the US. However graded meat prices remain relatively high compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating limited supply and solid demand from key markets. • Global beef exports in 2023 were virtually unchanged from the October forecast of 12.2 million tons. An increase in Chinese imports due to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions will strengthen HRI demand. Australi and Brazil are expected to gain market share due to lower exportable supplies in the ...
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