Pakistan is likely to fall short of its wheat production target for the current fiscal year by 1.7 million tonnes, with production expected to reach around 26.7 million tonnes, compared to the targeted 28.4 million tonnes. This shortfall is largely due to the adverse effects of climate change and the shift towards more profitable crop cultivation in Punjab, the country's largest wheat-producing region. The upcoming months also bring the risk of heavy rains and potential heatwaves, which could further impact wheat production. As a result, the government is faced with the necessity to import 3-3.5 million tonnes of wheat for the next fiscal year to meet domestic and Afghan demand, a move that will strain the country's already challenging dollar liquidity situation.