Global pork exports face uncertainty with volatile demand in 2023

Published 2023년 2월 1일

Tridge summary

Rabobank predicts that global pork trade will see modest growth in Q1 2023, but the sustainability of this growth is uncertain due to slow production in major exporting regions like the EU and US. In 2022, pork imports increased in many markets, especially Mexico, South Korea, and the Philippines, but China saw a significant decline in both import volume and hog prices. Europe's pork production fell by over 5% in 2022, with significant drops in Germany, Poland, Denmark, and Spain. In contrast, the US is predicted to see a slight increase in pork production in 2023 and exports are expected to remain steady in China and Mexico. Rabobank also warns of potential disruptions due to the spread of African swine fever, post-COVID pork demand in China, and other macroeconomic conditions.

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Original content

“Trade is expected to increase modestly in Q1 2023, but it may find growth difficult to sustain through the year, given slow production in major exporting regions like the EU and US,” said Chenjun Pan, senior analyst, Animal Protein at Rabobank. In 2022, pork imports increased across most markets, particularly those to Mexico, South Korea and the Philippines. China, however, saw import volume and hog prices decline significantly. In the coming year, tighter supply is predicted, leading to limited global pork trade. Europe pork production fell by more than 5% last year from the previous year. In October 2022, production dropped by 10% in Germany, 9% in Poland, 5% in Denmark, 2% in Spain, 2% in France and 0.5% in the Netherlands. The United States is forecasted to increase pork production slightly by 0.2% in 2023, the report said. Additionally, US pork exports will likely remain steady to China and Mexico, the latter of which imports 81% of its pork from the United States. Rabobank ...

Source: Meat+Poultry