With break-even costs still topping $87/cwt, Rabobank expects margins will remain under pressure through spring.
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Pork prices are weak due to larger-than-expected slaughter levels and large supplies of competing meat, according to latest Rabobank North American Agribusiness Review. Year-to-date pork cutout has averaged -11%, belly prices -38%, loins -9% and ribs -23% versus year-ago levels. Ham values, however, have increased 20% year-over-year. "Sizable increases in poultry supplies and heavy cold storage inventories (+15.6% YOY) are expected to limit upsides in pork prices through spring, although current indications of improved retail support for pork should help the industry gradually eliminate the surplus," write Al Griffin, senior data analyst and author of the report. With YTD slaughter running approximately 3% ahead of USDA expectations, hog prices are also being impacted. Griffin notes the 2.5 million average weekly slaughter through mid-February is most likely a catch-up following a lower Q4 2022 slaughter and has resulted in losses topping $10/head for producers. "We expect prices ...
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