Global animal feed prices to remain high for a long time

The Ukraine conflict is causing significant disruption to the global grain, oilseed, and animal feed markets, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for approximately 30% of the world's trade. The closure of Black Sea ports and Russian ports in the Sea of Azov, as well as western sanctions, have led to a supply gap that is worsened by panic reactions from countries like Hungary, Serbia, and Montenegro. The situation is most severe with wheat, with a expected shortfall of around five million tons in the next few months. The European Union (EU) is expected to make up some of the shortfall with increased wheat exports, but the agro-industrial sector in the EU may be impacted by the shortage, potentially leading to a shutdown of ethanol production. The situation is expected to persist until at least September 2023, with prices remaining high. The situation is also impacting the availability of corn, soybean meal, and fishmeal, leading to price increases and potential civil unrest in Southeast Asia.