Rapeseed futures in Paris rose to their highest level since late 2022

Published 2024년 12월 16일

Tridge summary

The European Union (EU) is experiencing a surge in demand for rapeseed due to limited sales from local farmers, decreased Ukrainian supplies, and slow supplies from Canada and Australia. Despite a drop in Canadian canola prices due to falling US soybean oil quotes and potential tariffs, rapeseed futures in Paris hit a record high in December. Market uncertainty is exacerbated by conflicting harvest forecasts for 2024/25 and variations in purchase prices in Ukraine and Canada. The Canadian dollar's decline against the US dollar could make Canadian supplies more affordable for the EU. Additionally, the anticipated large soybean crop in South America and the incoming Biden administration could lead to increased market volatility.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Speculative demand for rapeseed in the EU is supported by restrained sales by local farmers, reduced supplies of Ukrainian rapeseed and slow canola supplies from Canada and Australia. But the situation may change soon, as canola prices in Canada remain under pressure from falling US soybean oil quotes and the new US Administration’s intentions to impose tariffs on Canadian goods. Amidst market uncertainty, February rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 10% from a season-high of €543/t to €493/t between November 18 and 27, but recovered in December and reached a new record of €547/t or $575.3/t on Friday (+2.2% month-on-month, +22.3% year-on-year), the highest level since November 1, 2022. At the same time, May rapeseed futures have fallen from the record 535.5 €/t reached on November 18 and are trading at 530.5 €/t (+0.2% month-on-month, +19.4% year-on-year), while August new crop rapeseed futures are trading at 481.25 €/t on forecasts of an increase in global sowing areas in 2025. ...

Source: Graintrade