Record rapeseed production increases pressure on the market

is currently facing a structural dilemma: “bountiful harvests amid sluggish sales.” The main contradiction lies in the sharp contrast between record production volumes and extremely weak export demand. Specifically, Statistics Canada’s latest report confirms that the 2025/2026 canola harvest will total 21.8 million metric tons. This not only sets a new historical record but also significantly exceeds the previous market forecast of 21.25 million metric tons. Compared to the September estimate, this represents a significant increase of 1.77 million metric tons, or 2.56 million metric tons more than a year earlier—a significant increase of 13.3%. Coincidentally, the USDA’s December Supply and Demand report also raised Canada’s canola production forecast for the 2025/2026 season to 22 million metric tons, further strengthening expectations of a Canadian canola surplus. The unexpectedly strong increase in canola production in Canada is primarily due to favorable weather conditions and ...