Shaanxi is the largest production area for domestic kiwifruit, with Baoji City's Mei County, Xi'an City's Zhouzhi County, and Xianyang City's Wugong County being the three core production areas in Shaanxi. This year, Shaanxi's kiwifruit production has encountered a "waterloo," contrasting sharply with the 1.57 million tons of bumper harvest in 2024.
Affected by multiple climate disasters including spring cold snaps, continuous summer drought, and extreme high temperatures in the dog days, the overall kiwifruit production in the province is expected to decrease by 40%. The core production areas are particularly affected: 70% of fruit farmers in Zhouzhi County are facing reduced yields, with some orchards seeing a drop in fruit set rate to 30%, resulting in a halving of production or even total crop failure; in Mei County, among the 302,000 acres of kiwifruit, high temperatures and drought during the flowering period led to poor pollination, and rainy weather during the flood season exacerbated fruit diseases, with sunburned fruit and small fruit accounting for over 40%.
The sharp drop in production has directly ignited the price increase engine, with this year's Shaanxi kiwifruit prices showing a "staircase-like climb." The Xuxiang variety has shown particularly strong performance, with wholesale prices rising from 2.98 yuan/jin in mid-September to 3.23 yuan/jin on October 13, an increase of 8.4%, reaching a new high for the season, with procurement prices 0.5–1 yuan/jin higher than last year. Before the National Day, driven by stockpiling demand, prices rose slowly, and after the holiday, supported by relatively tight inventory, they continued to rise. The price performance of the high-end Cuixiang variety is even stronger, with wholesale prices in the Xi'an market stable at 5.17 yuan/jin, up 0.2–1 yuan/jin year-on-year. The retail price for high-end specifications of over 120 grams per fruit has soared to 8.5–8.7 yuan/jin, 2.6 times that of ordinary Xuxiang.
Supply and demand imbalance is the main reason for this round of price increases. On the supply side, a 40% drop in overall production in the province, combined with early fruit clearing inventory, caused the supply index from the production areas to plummet from 2095.2 in mid-September to 921.5 on October 12, a drop of over 56%; currently, 30%–40% of high-quality fruit in Mei County, Zhouzhi, and other places are still in cold storage waiting to be sold, with strong reluctance among fruit farmers to sell. On the demand side, sales of high-end gift boxes during the National Day increased by 12% year-on-year, with kiwifruit ranking in the top three for holiday pairings. The concept of healthy consumption has further driven the concentrated release of demand for high-quality fruit, further amplifying price elasticity.
Offline channels rely on cold chain advantages to maintain stable sales, with over 3500 cold storage facilities in Mei County forming a storage capacity of over 300,000 tons, and although this year's production has decreased, it can still extend the supply period through staggered sales. At the same time, e-commerce channels continue to make efforts, with sales of Shaanxi kiwifruit on platforms such as JD.com and Pinduoduo increasing by 23% year-on-year during the National Day, with "fresh picking and immediate delivery" cold chain allowing fresh fruit to reach distant markets such as Hainan and Xinjiang within 48 hours. In the international market, in 2025, the export volume of Mei County kiwifruit reached 18,000 tons, with an export value of 140 million yuan, an increase of 202.5% and 129.5% respectively from the previous year, and the fruit is accelerating its entry into the European market through the Sino-European geographical indication mutual recognition.
Looking ahead, the high-price trend of Shaanxi kiwifruit is unlikely to change in the short term. Currently, high-quality fruit inventory accounts for only 25% of the total production, and fruit farmers have a strong willingness to maintain high prices, and the weather in mid-to-late October is favorable for transportation, so the balanced state of supply and demand will continue until early November. Although the arrival of citrus fruits may bring a small impact, the substitution effect of high-quality kiwifruit is limited, and the price pullback is expected to be no more than 5%.