Sharp decline in EU sunseed harvest forecast supports high sunflower prices at the start of the season in Ukraine and contributes to rising rapeseed prices

The projected reduction in sunseed production in the EU will lead to a supply deficit, which, according to analysts, will be compensated for by processors by increased supplies of rapeseed. Expana analysts have increased the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2025/26 MY from 19.6 to 20 million tons (compared to 16.9 million tons in MY 2024/25) due to good harvests in France, Poland, Romania, and Hungary. Prices for sunflower oil in August at the bases of northern European ports reached $1,280-1,300/t, and according to the trading platform Trading Economics, prices for sunflower oil delivered to buyers increased by 4.2% to $1,335/t over the month. This increased the demand for sunseed in Ukraine, and its prices at the end of August reached 27,500-28,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory. After the start of the harvest, the demand prices for sunseed decreased from September 1 to the levels of 26,500-27,000 UAH/t (oil content 50%) or $560-570/t excluding VAT, but the low ...