Short-term outlook of EU agricultural markets: Gradual but fragile return to stability

Published Oct 21, 2024

Tridge summary

The European Commission's autumn 2024 report highlights potential improvements in EU agri-food demand amid stabilizing economic conditions, though challenges like weather and geopolitical issues persist. Food inflation is declining, but prices remain high compared to 2020. While EU GDP growth and moderate inflation may boost demand, the fertilizer market faces affordability issues. Beef production is expected to decline, with mixed trends in pigmeat and growing poultry production despite HPAI concerns. Sheep and goat meat production is declining, affecting exports. Overall, EU exports are projected to increase by 10% by the end of 2024, despite a decline in live animal exports. Imports are less attractive, with a slight decline expected. The EU faces challenges in maintaining meat production and exports amid fluctuating prices and geopolitical uncertainties, with a slight recovery in imports anticipated due to production recovery in New Zealand and Australia.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The general macroeconomic and food price environment points to possible improvements in demand for agri-food products in most sectors. Nonetheless, the outlook remains subject to a high degree of uncertainty, linked to weather events, geopolitical conflicts and animal and plant diseases. Published by the European Commission, the autumn 2024 edition of the short-term outlook report for EU agricultural markets presents the latest trends and prospects for key agricultural markets. According to the report published, agricultural markets are showing signs of stabilisation. Food inflation has been declining, and food prices have remained relatively stable over the last months for most products, though they are on average 32% higher compared to 2020. An increase in demand for agri-food products could be supported by the expected EU GDP growth and steady moderate inflation. The EU fertiliser market is also gradually stabilising, with trade flows returning to normal and domestic production ...

Source: EuroMeat