The market dominance of sweet oranges in the Southern Hemisphere is rooted in the steady growth of production in the producing regions. For the 2024/2025 season, South Africa benefits from favorable weather and a slight increase in planting area, with sweet orange production expected to increase by 1% to 1.7 million tons, laying the foundation for export growth. Australia performed even more impressively, with sweet orange production expected to reach 545,000 tons for the season, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous season, marking the highest record in 20 years; the increase in production is due to ideal weather conditions with a dry fruit-setting period and sufficient rainfall in the later growth period, and low wind speeds significantly reduced the rate of fruit blemishes. The release of production capacity directly translates into export momentum, with Australia's sweet orange exports expected to increase to 190,000 tons this season, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous season, reaching the third-highest export volume level in history.
In terms of export market layout, the European Union has become the core destination for Southern Hemisphere sweet oranges. In September, the European Union imported 169,300 tons of sweet oranges, of which South African sweet oranges accounted for 132,400 tons, representing a high proportion of 78.24%, an increase of 2.79 percentage points year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 46.01%. This pattern is due to a disruption in the supply of EU-grown sweet oranges: Spain's sweet oranges have ended their sales cycle, with only a small amount of Portuguese and Greek sweet oranges supporting the market; while other producing regions such as Zimbabwe and Argentina lack competitiveness, and their import volumes continue to shrink. In September, Zimbabwe exported only 12,400 tons of sweet oranges to the European Union, a decrease of 1.35% month-on-month; although Argentine sweet oranges attempted to fill the market gap, their export scale is limited. In addition to the European Union, China has also become an important market for Southern Hemisphere sweet oranges, with China importing 42,900 tons of sweet oranges in September, of which South African oranges accounted for 30,300 tons, while Australian oranges, due to their excellent quality, remained the second-largest import source country.
The influx of a large amount of Southern Hemisphere sweet oranges directly lowered the prices in the European Union's sweet orange market. In September, the wholesale average price of fresh sweet oranges in the European Union fell to 79.60 euros per 100 kilograms (equivalent to 5.72 yuan per kilogram at the current exchange rate), a decrease of 8.76% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decline of 17.78%, which is 8.07% lower than the average of the same period in the past five years. However, the price trend showed significant differentiation: Southern Hemisphere sweet oranges such as those from South Africa adopted a low-price strategy to capture the market, lowering the overall average price; while the remaining Greek and Portuguese sweet oranges in the European Union, due to their scarce supply, saw their wholesale prices increase by 30.18% and 21.75% month-on-month, respectively. Market analysts pointed out that this trend of "overall decline and local increase" will continue until the new production season.
The European Commission predicts that the European Union's sweet orange imports for the 2024/2025 season may exceed 1.5 million tons. This also brings export opportunities for Chinese sweet oranges that are about to enter the market. From the perspective of the industry base, China's citrus industry scale continues to expand, with sweet orange exports reaching 155,300 tons in the 2023/2024 season, a doubling increase of 218.91% from the previous year. From the perspective of the global supply and demand gap, the production of sweet oranges in the Northern Hemisphere, such as the United States and the European Union, has decreased or supply has been interrupted, while the Southern Hemisphere, although dominating the market in the short term, has seen Australian exports approach their historical high, and with South Africa's export share to the European Union exceeding 70%, there is limited further incremental space, providing a window of opportunity for Chinese sweet oranges to fill the gap.