Statistics Canada cuts canola crop forecast and raises wheat, soybeans, and barley

Statistics Canada (StatCan) released its major crop estimates on Dec. 5. The report is based on a survey of 27,200 farmers, while preliminary estimates for August and September were based on models using satellite imagery. Canola production is down from September estimates of 18.98 million tonnes to 17.8 million tonnes, below the analysts’ average estimate of 18.51 million tonnes and 7% below last year’s crop of 19.19 million tonnes. Dry, hot weather in July and August in parts of Western Canada reduced yields by 7% to 36 bushels per acre, although pre-harvest acres were down only 0.1% to 21.9 million acres. In Saskatchewan (the main canola producing region), yields fell 3% to 35.9 bushels/acre and area fell 2.2% to 12 million acres, leaving production down 5.1% to 9.8 million tonnes. In Alberta, production fell 8.5% to 5.1 million tonnes, driven by a 9% decline in yields to 35.6 bushels/acre, although area rose 0.6% to 6.3 million acres. In Manitoba, acres increased by 6.2% to ...