Sunflower seeds harvest forecasts: Drought hits Ukraine, while Russia and Kazakhstan expect production to increase

Weather conditions significantly affect the sunseed harvest in the Black Sea region in the MY 2025/26. Due to dry weather in Ukraine, analysts are revising estimates downward, while Russia and Kazakhstan are preparing for increased production. Ukraine: Drought threat lowers harvest expectations According to scientists at the Institute of Agriculture of the NAAS, soil moisture in regions such as the Dnipropetrovsk region is already critically low — less than 160 mm, and a yield of less than 1 t/ha is considered acceptable under such conditions. A decrease in temperature and rain are expected in the next 5–7 days, but there will be significantly less rain in the south and east than in the center and west of Ukraine. According to the USDA FAS , the sunflower seeds harvest in Ukraine in the MY 2025/26 is preliminarily estimated at 14 million tons (versus 13 million tons in 2024/25), but this is 3.3% less than the five-year average. Sown areas have been reduced to 5.8 million hectares ...