Tariffs, tech spending cloud US farm outlook – CoBank

Significant downward revisions to monthly payroll estimates in August led many market observers to anticipate the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rate cuts more aggressively. However, recent economic data has generally been positive, tempering expectations for more significant cuts before the end of the year, according to a recent market report from CoBank. According to a new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the most likely scenario is an additional four or five cuts of 25 basis points through 2026, leaving the overnight rate around 3.0% by the end of 2026. The actual outcome will depend heavily on how the economic data looks and how successful the White House is in influencing monetary policy. Tariff policy uncertainty, the sharp decline in immigration and the massive surge in AI investments have made interpreting traditional economic reports more difficult. The CoBank report suggests sharp swings in monthly import volumes, a flattening of ...