The global grain market is predicted to rise due to a reduction in land in 2025

Published Nov 27, 2024

Tridge summary

The International Grains Council forecasts a decrease in the European Union's cereal production, with a predicted 3.95% reduction in total cereals and a 10.6% decrease in wheat production by 2025. This trend is also expected in durum wheat, with a decrease in arable land. In Russia, farmers are shifting to more profitable crops due to low prices and weather losses, leading to a predicted 12.6% decrease in Russia's cereal harvest. However, Algeria has bought nearly 400 thousand tonnes of Canadian hard wheat at an average price of US$354 per metric ton. Canada has increased its tonnage estimate for hard wheat to 4.9 million tons, a 38% increase compared to last year, and expects to export three Panamax-sized vessels to Southern Italy.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Regarding the European Union, the IGC detects a leakage of area in total cereals, with production of 268.6 million. tons last year to 258.4 million tons in 2025 (-3.95%). In the case of wheat (sum of all types) the reduction of the harvest is predicted to be stronger, from 133.1 million. tons last year to 120.3 million tons this year (-10.6%). For the time being, there are no official data by type of wheat, however the well-known pattern of one year in deficit and one year in surplus in durum wheat seems likely to continue this year. Based on the Commission's estimates for the month of October and in view of sowing, the arable land with durum wheat is expected to be 2.9% lower compared to last year and almost 5% below the 5-year average, around 21,180,000 hectares. Much will of course depend on the lands in Turkey and Canada. Canada has for many years produced durum wheat from spring sowing one season and switched to other options the next. Spring plantings resulted in a crop of ...

Source: GRAgronews