Low survival rate of fish fry, high aquaculture costs
According to Le Thi Thuy Trang, sales manager of the Vietnam-based Siam Canadian Group, recent continuous heavy rainfall has caused dramatic fluctuations in water pH levels and increased the temperature difference between day and night, leading to a significant rise in the mortality rate of fish fry. She pointed out: "Currently, it is not a good season for restocking, and the low survival rate has directly driven up aquaculture costs."
Meanwhile, aquaculture farmers generally are unwilling to sell fish at low prices and instead choose to delay sales, waiting for the fish to grow larger to obtain higher profits. This "reluctance to sell" mentality has further exacerbated the tight supply of raw materials.
Fish fry prices return to high levels
Data shows that fish fry prices have been soaring in August, with prices for 30 fish per kilogram nearing 40,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, approaching the high levels seen at the beginning of the year. Industry analysis suggests that the supply of fish fry will remain tight until the end of August, and prices may continue to strengthen.
Differentiated market for adult fish, premium for large fish narrows
In terms of adult fish, during the 34th week (August 18-24), the pond head price for large-sized (over 1.2 kg) basa fish showed a noticeable decline, reducing the premium over medium and small sizes.
- 800g-1.0kg size: Prices have risen for the sixth consecutive week, mainly for export to the EU and the US.
- 1.0-1.2kg size: Prices have slightly declined.
- Sizes over 1.2kg: Prices have significantly dropped, mainly affected by weak demand from the Chinese market.
Currently, processing plants are still digesting raw materials from their own aquaculture farms, and factory prices remain at 3.15-3.25 USD per kilogram. The industry predicts that once the self-raised fish are consumed, processors will be forced to raise purchase prices, driving the market upward.
Export market remains cautious
Although the US-Vietnam trade agreement reduced direct export tariffs from 46% to 20% in July, US market buyers remain cautious due to ample inventory, which is suppressing new orders. The EU market remains relatively stable, with export prices at a three-year high but not yet breaking the annual peak.
Several consulting agencies predict that due to adverse weather, insufficient supply of fish fry, and farmers' reluctance to sell, there is a high probability that Vietnamese basa fish prices will see another round of increases in September. This trend may create higher profit margins for Vietnamese exporters but may also increase procurement costs for international buyers.