Trump’s soy reprieve is late to the harvest

Xi Jinping bought peace for a handful of beans. The trade war truce reached between the United States and China at a presidential meeting in South Korea rests, in part, on promises from the People’s Republic to resume purchases of American soybeans. The problem for farmers is that this still leaves their export season cut short, rivals in Brazil gaining share, and expected exports to the Asian country down over 50%. While President Donald Trump left Busan having made progress on two critical issues – China’s restrictions on all-important rare earth metal exports, and the loss of a major customer for U.S. farmers – the biggest superpower tensions remain unresolved. Even where bargains were struck, things are hardly back to normal. China’s offer to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year is a steep decline from 27 million in 2024 and down two-thirds from 2016, the last full year before Trump’s inaugural presidential term began. Even if added to the 5.9 million ...