According to German media Mundus Agri, the latest data released by the International Nuts and Dried Fruits Council (INC) at a recent conference shows that the global walnut industry has a promising outlook, with China's production expected to remain stable, while the United States and Chile are predicted to achieve growth.
INC data indicates that global walnut production in the 2025/26 season is expected to rebound, increasing slightly by 6% to 2.767 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season, with global supply growing marginally by 4% to 2.866 million tons.
China's Production Remains Unchanged
China's in-shell walnut production is expected to remain steady at 1.55 million tons. Industry insiders reveal that Yunnan Province's planting area will reach 2.87 million hectares, with Xinjiang's planting area around 42,470 hectares. Despite expanded planting scale, low fruit setting rates will suppress production growth. If weather conditions are favorable, this season's production will remain stable. Weather factors will also affect the quality of walnut maturation and harvest periods. Notably, the new season's kernel fullness and grain size are expected to be superior to the previous year, with hopes of improving the small fruit rate.
Increased Production in the US and Chile
The California Walnut Commission states that this season's prospects are optimistic. Currently, water resources are abundant, spring temperatures are ideal, and flowering and sprouting conditions are favorable. With continued favorable weather, both yield and quality are expected to be optimal, with production predicted to grow 14% from the previous season to 616,000 tons.
After experiencing a reduction in 2024, Chile is expected to see a 25% production rebound this season, rising to 168,000 tons. Local media reports suggest that suppliers might benefit from Trump-era tariff policies, with Mexico potentially turning to Chile for alternative products. Although future negotiations between the US, Mexico, and Canada remain uncertain, under the USMCA, walnuts and almonds can be exempted from 25% punitive tariffs.
Additionally, based on the temporary tariff reduction agreement between China and the US: the US will reduce additional tariffs on Chinese products from 145% to