USDA experts lowered forecasts for world corn production and stocks

Maize (Corn)

South Africa

France

Published Mar 12, 2024

Tridge summary

The USDA has revised corn production forecasts, reducing estimates for Ukraine, Mexico, and South Africa, but increasing them for Argentina. This has resulted in a surge in corn futures on the Chicago and Paris exchanges. Despite a lower predicted harvest, Ukrainian corn remains the most affordable globally, leading to increased exports. The forecast for Brazil remains unchanged due to favorable weather conditions for second-crop corn. However, if South American weather continues to support crop development and harvesting, prices may remain under pressure due to high supply volumes.

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Original content

In a March report, USDA experts lowered corn production forecasts for Ukraine, Mexico and South Africa and raised those for Argentina, adding pressure to quotations. The weather in Brazil favors the planting and development of second-crop corn crops, so the forecast for it has been left unchanged for now. According to the report, March corn futures on the Chicago exchange rose by 0.4% to $173.1/t (+1.5% compared to the data after the February report), and on the Paris exchange - by 0 .7% to €174.5/t or $190.9/t (+1%). Compared to the February estimates, the new corn balance for the 2023/24 FY has undergone the following changes: Ukrainian corn remains the cheapest on the world market, so its ...

Source: Graintrade