USDA projections for US hog farming confuse the industry

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Dec. 1 hog report indicated that hog inventory on the market is 66.96 million, compared to 68.32 million last year. A 2% year-over-year decline. After seeing the 2% reduction in inventory, it came as a surprise to us to read the US Government's Quarterly Animal Protein Production report released last week. With inventory 2% lower than last year, the USDA production report predicts 2% more pork in 2023. You really wonder if the USDA has internal communication. There is no way that the United States will produce 4% more pork in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 2022. There is no scenario in the economy of this market that makes us believe that there will be a 4% growth. Negative producer margins, construction costs, feed prices, labor issues and the maintenance and disposal model were all negative. We hear about capital injections to cover embedded losses for growers and packers. This by no means leads to more pigs. Now that we've ...