USDA’s 2026 cattle production forecast is far below expectations

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) decision to revise downward its 2026 beef and pork production forecasts is nothing new, “but it’s also fundamentally flawed,” says a seasoned livestock analyst and trader. The source reports that the agency continues to base its forecasts almost exclusively on historical slaughter data, rather than on supply projections. As a result, the analyst predicts, “USDA will likely undershoot its 2026 pork and beef production forecast by approximately 1 million head.” “We have already begun revising our own pork and beef production forecasts upward beginning in June 2026, consistent with our forecasts published in late September and October,” the analyst continues. This assessment remains valid. The USDA will almost certainly be forced to revise future reports upward—likely significantly—though the agency may not fully recognize this reality until January 2027 or later. The magnitude of this adjustment will surprise many. The USDA also misread ...