Vietnam overtakes Canada to become China's largest supplier of lobster.

Besides the surge in import volume, the Chinese market is undergoing a profound transformation in its supply chain structure, with Vietnam becoming the biggest beneficiary of the shift in trade flows and the growth in China's high-end demand. China's seafood consumption is showing an increasingly clear trend of polarization, with price-sensitive consumers tending to choose low-priced seafood, while the high-income group continues to drive demand for high-end items such as live lobsters, large shrimp, and deeply processed seafood products. The expansion of the modern retail system, e-commerce platforms, and chain restaurants is further driving the shift in consumption patterns from frozen, low-value shrimp to high-value-added and live fresh products. VASEP pointed out that as a high-income experiential product often associated with banquets and celebrations, lobster demand often grows rapidly with the recovery of high-end consumption, and this recovery trend will be more pronounced in 2025. In 2024, Canada led the Chinese market with a supply of 26,920 tons, accounting for about 44% of China's total lobster purchases; Vietnam ranked second with 10,865 tons, accounting for about 18%. By 2025, there will be a dramatic reversal in the rankings of these two countries: - Vietnam's exports to China will surge to 24,067 tons, capturing about 34.5% of the market share; - Canada will decline to 15,355 tons, accounting for about 22%; - The U.S. supply will be 9,931 tons, about 14.2%; - Australia's supply will rise significantly to 6,950 tons, accounting for about 10%. Starting from March 20, 2025, China will impose an additional 25% tariff on multiple types of Canadian seafood, including lobster. Given the high value-added nature of lobsters and Chinese buyers' sensitivity to price, this tariff significantly weakens the market competitiveness of Canadian products, prompting Chinese importers to accelerate the shift to alternative supply channels. Vietnam holds a significant advantage in exports to China: shorter transportation distance, faster delivery times, more flexible shipping scale, and outstanding capacity for supplying live fresh lobsters. According to the China-Canada agreement, starting from March 1, 2026, the 25% tariff on Canadian lobsters and crabs will be lifted, and the market will enter a new round of competition. Additionally, Australia is returning to the Chinese market, with its lobster exports to China surging. Its return not only replenishes the high-end market supply but also intensifies competition among the leading exporting countries. VASEP emphasized that in the next phase, the key to winning the competition will no longer depend solely on scale, but on the comprehensive ability to consistently provide reliability, timeliness, and high-end value in a highly competitive market.