WASDE update: Soybean yield revisions tighten up market in the US

Published 2024년 11월 12일

Tridge summary

The USDA has revised down its 2024/25 US corn ending stock estimates from 1,999m bushels to 1,938m bushels, slightly above market expectations, and reduced yield and production estimates, but left export numbers unchanged. Global balance sheets have been revised upwards for production and demand, with supply losses from Mexico, the US, and the EU offset by increases in Uganda, Kenya, Cameroon, and Belarus. The USDA has also lowered its US soybean production estimates, leading to reduced ending stocks, and cut global soybean production estimates primarily due to the US. Wheat balance sheets have seen a minor increase in US ending stocks and a slight reduction in global ending stocks.

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Original content

US corn exports left unchanged despite surge in export sales The USDA has lowered its 2024/25 US corn ending stock estimates from 1,999m bushels to 1,938m bushels – but this was still above market expectations of around 1,921m bushels. Yield estimates were cut slightly, which saw production estimates revised down by 60m bushels to 15,143m bushels, slightly below market expectations. Surprisingly, export numbers were left unchanged, despite the strong export sales data seen over October. Looking at the global balance, the USDA revised production and demand estimates upwards to 1,219.4mt (vs 1,217.2mt) and 1,229.5mt (vs 1,223.3mt) respectively. Upward supply revisions came from Uganda, Kenya, Cameroon, and Belarus, offsetting the supply losses from Mexico (-0.5mt), the US (-1.5mt), and the EU (-0.2mt). However, stronger demand pushed the 2024/25 ending stocks estimate down to 304.1mt from a previous estimate of 306.5mt and left it below market expectations of just under 306mt. Lower ...

Source: Hellenic Shipping News