Wheat prices fell after significant reductions in export and import forecasts in USDA report

Published Feb 12, 2025

Tridge summary

The USDA's February supply and demand report shows a slight increase in global wheat production and a significant increase in global consumption, leading to a decrease in the estimate of world ending stocks for 2024/25 MY. This is due to reduced wheat export forecasts for major exporters and increased imports for China. The new world wheat balance for 2024/25 MY has been adjusted accordingly. This has resulted in a decrease in wheat stock quotes, which had seen a growth due to frosts in the USA and rising corn prices. Factors such as predictions of a global economic deterioration and China's refusal to buy wheat from Australia and Canada could put pressure on quotes in the near future. Additionally, a decrease in wheat exports from the EU is expected to further impact quotes.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the February supply and demand report, USDA experts slightly increased the forecast for world wheat production and significantly increased the forecast for world consumption, as a result of which they lowered the estimate of world ending stocks in 2024/25 MY. A sharp reduction in wheat export forecasts for major exporters and imports for China led to a drop in stock quotes, which grew by 5.6-8.7% during the month against the background of frosts in the USA and rising corn prices. Compared to the January estimates, the new world wheat balance for 2024/25 MY has undergone the following changes: Based on the report, March wheat futures have slightly decreased in price: Forecasts of a deterioration in the global economy, especially in importing countries, are slowing down wheat imports, which will increase pressure on quotes in the near future, especially ...

Source: Graintrade