Will soybeans start rising again?

Even with unofficial signs of an increase in the volume acquired by China, the market remains focused on the comfortable global availability. Quotations continue to reflect this environment, with little room for sustained recovery, while the technical reading indicates a sideways movement that began in July 2024, still dominant for the May 2025 contracts. In this context, the assessment is that the probability of a more significant rise is reduced, as the South American crops are practically consolidated. In the United States, the USDA confirmed new soybean sales to China for the 2025/26 crop, but the announced volumes were not enough to change the feeling of caution. At the same time, there is a divergence between official numbers and market information about the total effectively purchased by the Chinese, which adds noise to the analyses. This movement occurs in parallel with the management of domestic inventories in China, with lower-than-expected sales in state auctions, ...