World grain trade will decrease in the 2022-2023 season - FAO forecast
Published May 8, 2023
FAO's current forecast for world cereal production in 2022 has been raised by 7.7 million tonnes from last month's forecast, and now stands at 2,785 million tonnes, still 1.0 percent below last year's level. An increase in wheat production in Kazakhstan, with official data indicating that the harvest was higher than previously forecast, has for the first time in history led to an increase in the world's gross production above the mark of 800 million tons.
The forecast for the world production of fodder grains has also been raised, which is due to a higher-than-expected harvest in India; this is confirmed by official data, according to which the yield has increased and the cultivated areas have expanded; however, this volume is still 2.8% below the level of the previous season. The FAO forecast for rice production in the world in the 2022-2023 season has been slightly increased to 516.7 million tons (in terms of shelled grain). This is 1.8% below the 2021-2022 level, which was also revised upwards to reach an all-time record of 526.0 million tonnes. To a large extent, this was due to the clarification of the gross output data in Myanmar. However, Myanmar is still expected to see a marked decline in gross production by the end of the 2022-2023 season, mainly due to constraints related to the sharp increase in the cost of production inputs. Elsewhere in the world, official estimates for Colombia, Ghana and Peru also point to ...