Brazil: CONAB adjusts projections and leverages expectations for the wheat harvest in 2024

Published 2024년 3월 5일

Tridge summary

Itaú BBA Agro Consulting's monthly analysis reveals changes in the global wheat scenario, including a 25.9% increase in Brazil's 2024 wheat harvest, making it the second largest in history. Despite stable wheat prices in Paraná, prices rose in Rio Grande due Sul due to local market disturbances. The Red Sea conflict has escalated sea freight costs, creating opportunities for South American wheat to attract Asian buyers. Argentina and Brazil experienced a record-breaking 82% increase in exports in January 2024, but face competition from Argentina's high-quality, affordable wheat.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The monthly analysis by Itaú BBA Agro Consulting highlights the recent changes in the international wheat scenario, highlighting CONAB's adjustments for the 2024 harvest and the opportunities generated by the increase in maritime freight costs. The article explores the impacts of these variables on prices, market liquidity and the prospects for Brazil as one of the main players in the sector. CONAB's latest estimate for the 2024 wheat harvest keeps the area stable at 3.47 million hectares. However, the big news lies in the positive correction in productivity, which is close to the average of recent years, reaching 2,934 kg/ha (47 bags/ha). This adjustment represents a significant increase of 25.9% compared to the previous harvest, marked by adverse weather conditions. The combination of stable area and rising productivity suggests a potential supply of 10.2 million tons, representing an increase of 25.9% compared to 2023. If confirmed, this result would position Brazil to achieve ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio